Potential areas and vulnerability of the robust coffee crop (Coffea canephora P.) to climate change in the state of Tabasco, Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21640/ns.v10i20.1379Keywords:
agro-ecological zones, very apt areas, potential yield, impact of climate changeAbstract
The Federal government, through the General Direction of Tropical Zones of the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fishing, and Food (SAGARPA), has been fostering the opening of 20,000 ha for the cultivation of robusta coffee in the south-southeast states. As part of this initiative, the present study is done to determine in which areas of Tabasco state this type of coffee could successfully be established, and what the impacts of climate change in the middle of the XXI century would be with regard to its adaptation and yields. Thus, the objective of the present study was to determine the best areas, from the climate and soil point of view, for the cultivation of robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) in Tabasco state, and their possible vulnerability to climate change in the middle of the current century.
Method: This was done using the Agro-Ecological Zones methodology (AEZ) proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for the current conditions for the (RCP8.5) climate change scenario expected for middle of the XXI century. Also, the potential yields were estimated for three levels of input (low, medium, and high) in the areas that were very apt for both climatic conditions, using the (AEZ) methodology proposed by FAO (1981), updated by Fischer et al.(2012).
Results: The results indicate that in the case of a mean daily increase of 1.6 ºC by the year 2050, under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5), the very apt area for robusta coffee cultivation in Tabasco state is not modified. On the other hand, the mean potential yields would decrease by 41% by the year 2050, due to the effect of the increase of daytime temperatures on the maximum photosynthetic rate.
Discussion: In Tabasco state, there are currently 154,755.14 ha that are edapho-climatically very apt for the establishment of robusta coffee. Under the A2 climate change scenario (RCP8.5), a increase in daily temperature of 1.6 ºC is expected, which would not affect the edapho-climatic aptitude of robusta coffee. The mean potential yields vary in function of the amount of input for the age and planting density specified.
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